2013 vs. 2017 – What outcome do you expect?

The 2013 Election Resulted in a False Majority

As usual, the 2013 BC Election resulted in a majority government on the basis of a minority of the vote.

The BC Liberals received 44% of the overall vote which translated into 58% of the seats.  That boost in seats over the actual vote gave the Liberals a majority government and total power to decide on policy.

All their so called majority decisions were made on the basis of 44% support from voters.

We can predict with certainty that the 2017 election results will have a similar mismatch between votes and seats.

How can we be so sure?  Because our current voting system is not designed to work that way.  It does not assign seats in a way that is related to the percentage of the vote.  The facts back it up:  there has never been an election in BC or Canadian history using first past the post where the outcome has been anywhere close to a match between votes and seats.

The latest CBC poll tracker predicts an NDP victory of 56% of the seats based on 43% of the vote.  Liberals 39% of seats on 35% of the vote.  The Greens are expected to receive under 5% of the seats on 20% of the vote.


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